Skymet Lowers 2026 Monsoon Forecast: 70% Drought Risk for India

Private weather forecaster Skymet has significantly downgraded its 2026 southwest monsoon projection to 85% of the long period average (LPA), signaling a 70% chance of drought. This revision highlights growing concerns over intensifying El Nino conditions impacting India’s crucial rainy season.

Understanding the Forecast Downgrade

Skymet’s latest outlook is a notable shift from its April projection, which anticipated the summer monsoon at 94% of LPA, or 6% below normal. The forecaster attributes this change to a strengthening El Nino and ongoing uncertainty surrounding a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

The updated forecast provides specific figures for the upcoming months and overall season:

• Skymet’s 2026 southwest monsoon forecast: 85% of LPA.
• Probability of drought: 70%.
• Countrywide rainfall from June 1 to July 31: 13% below LPA.
• August rainfall forecast: 84% of LPA.
• September rainfall forecast: 80% of LPA.

Jatin Singh, Skymet’s managing director, noted that El Nino is gaining momentum and is expected to escalate from a ‘strong’ to a ‘very strong’ category by early September. This intensifying weather phenomenon is a primary driver behind the erratic weather patterns observed and projected.

Official Weather Office Adjusts Projections

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also revised its 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall forecast. Their latest projection now stands at 90% of LPA, a slight decrease from their earlier 92% estimate.

The official weather agency anticipates precipitation during the critical August-September period to be less than 94% of LPA. This aligns with Skymet’s concerns about the latter half of the monsoon season.

Monsoon’s Critical Role in India’s Economy

India’s economy heavily relies on the four-month-long monsoon season, which provides between 75% and 80% of its annual rainfall. This period is also crucial for more than half of the country’s total foodgrain production.

The precise distribution and timing of rainfall are vital for major monsoon or kharif crops, including paddy, cotton, pulses, and oilseeds. Any inconsistency in precipitation directly threatens sowing decisions and overall agricultural output.

The implications of an unpredictable monsoon were evident in 2023, leading to tangible economic effects:

• Unpredictable monsoons in 2023, caused by El Nino, reduced India’s foodgrain output by 6.1%.
• This reduction occurred during the 2023-24 crop year, spanning July to June.

With both private and official forecasters revising their monsoon outlooks downwards due to El Nino, the agricultural sector faces heightened uncertainty. The performance of the remaining monsoon months will be crucial for India’s food security and economic stability.