Skymet Forecast: 2026 Monsoon at 85% LPA, 70% Drought Risk

Skymet Weather has significantly downgraded its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast, now projecting rainfall at just 85% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This revised outlook indicates a substantial 70% probability of drought for the upcoming season, marking a notably pessimistic assessment for India’s agricultural sector and overall economy.

Key Monsoon Forecasts

• Skymet’s 2026 Southwest Monsoon: 85% of LPA
• Drought Probability (Skymet): 70% for the season
• Skymet’s August Rainfall Forecast: 84% of LPA
• Skymet’s September Rainfall Forecast: 80% of LPA
• India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) August-September Outlook: Below 94% of LPA

This updated forecast from Skymet stands in sharp contrast to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) own outlook for the crucial August-September period. The IMD had previously predicted rainfall below 94% of the LPA, presenting a less severe projection compared to Skymet’s latest, more concerning figures.

Skymet attributes the heightened severity of its forecast primarily to the strengthening El Nino phenomenon. The agency anticipates El Nino to intensify from a “strong” to a “very strong” phase by early September, a development expected to significantly impact rainfall patterns across the subcontinent.

Both Skymet Weather and the India Meteorological Department acknowledge the significant influence of El Nino on monsoon dynamics, a critical factor for India. They also note the potential for a late-developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole; however, their overall assessments of the monsoon’s severity and its consequences for the year diverge considerably.

The revised forecast from Skymet underscores increasing concerns over agricultural output, water availability, and broader economic implications for 2026, given the elevated drought probability. Market participants will closely monitor subsequent updates from both meteorological agencies as the monsoon season progresses, particularly as El Nino strengthens.