Bajaj Housing Finance Stock Plummets 53% Amid Mixed Analyst Views

Shares of Bajaj Housing Finance have plummeted 53% from their peak, sparking varied opinions among market analysts regarding its current valuation.

The company, which launched its IPO in September 2024 at Rs 70 per share, initially surged before experiencing a significant decline.

Share Price Movement

• IPO Price: Rs 70 per share
• Peak Price: Rs 181.50 (nearly 160% surge from IPO)
• Current Price: Approximately Rs 86.03 (23% above IPO price)

For the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 (Q1 FY27), Bajaj Housing Finance reported robust financial growth, despite the stock’s performance on the market.

Q1 FY27 Performance Highlights

• Net Profit: Rs 715.28 crore (22% year-on-year increase)
• Total Revenue: Rs 3,063.02 crore (17.10% year-on-year growth)
• Interest Income: Rs 2,856.07 crore (17.5% year-on-year rise)
• Assets Under Management (AUM): Rs 1,49,610 crore as of June 30, 2026 (24.24% year-on-year expansion)
• Quarterly Disbursement: Rs 19,509 crore (11.39% yearly increase, highest ever)
• Gross NPAs: Improved to 0.29% (stable asset quality)

Brokerage firms have issued a diverse set of ratings and target prices for Bajaj Housing Finance, reflecting the mixed sentiment across the market.

Brokerage Ratings and Target Prices

• Buy Ratings:
  • ICICI Securities: Target Rs 125
  • Phillip Capital: Target Rs 110
• Add Ratings:
  • JM Financial: Target Rs 95
  • Kotak Institutional Equities: Target Rs 100
  • Emkay Global: Target Rs 90
  • IIFL Securities: Target Rs 90
  • Axis Capital: Target Rs 100
• Neutral Ratings:
  • UBS: Target Rs 100
  • Motilal Oswal: Target Rs 95
  • JP Morgan: Target Rs 85
• Reduce/Sell Ratings:
  • HSBC (Reduce): Target Rs 76
  • DAM Capital (Sell): Target Rs 80
  • Ambit (Sell): Target Rs 83

ICICI Securities maintained its ‘buy’ rating, citing a steady Q1 FY27 performance with a stable Return on Assets (RoA) of 2.3% and an expanded Return on Equity (RoE) of 12.5%.

They acknowledged competitive pressures on Net Interest Margins (NIMs), but noted that lower credit costs supported earnings. Management projects maintaining RoA between 2.1-2.3% and AUM growth of 21-23% for FY27, despite an expected slight NIM compression of 5-10bps.

JM Financial assigned an ‘add’ rating, projecting a 20% EPS CAGR over FY26–28E, driven by improved operating efficiency and controlled credit costs. Diversification into higher-yielding segments is expected to partially offset margin pressure.

However, JM Financial believes the current valuation of 2.5x FY28E Book Value Per Share (BVPS) already accounts for these positive factors, thus limiting significant near-term upside. The wide range of analyst recommendations underscores the uncertainty surrounding Bajaj Housing Finance’s future trajectory.