SpaceX Starship V3 Test: IPO Confidence at Stake

Main Takeaway

SpaceX’s critical Starship Version 3 test today could make or break investor confidence following its $86 billion IPO, signaling major progress for its moon and Mars ambitions.

What Happened?

SpaceX is launching its 13th Starship flight test from Starbase in South Texas at 5:45 p.m. local time today. This is the second flight for the upgraded Version 3 rocket.

This mission is the first since SpaceX’s $86 billion initial public offering in June. Shares initially surged but then dropped back near the $135 IPO price by July 15, putting investor sentiment on edge.

The previous May test saw the Starship deploy mock satellites successfully, but the Super Heavy booster suffered an uncontrolled spin and an engine failure. SpaceX has since implemented hardware and software changes to address these issues.

Today’s flight aims for the Super Heavy booster to ignite 33 Raptor engines, separate, and splash down in the Gulf of Mexico. Starship will then travel near-orbital, relight an engine, and deploy 20 upgraded Starlink satellites before an Indian Ocean splashdown about an hour after launch.

Why It Matters

A successful flight could reignite investor confidence and validate the $86 billion valuation post-IPO, demonstrating the company’s execution on its ambitious goals.

Starship is foundational to SpaceX’s biggest projects, including expanding the Starlink network, establishing space data centers, and fulfilling NASA contracts for moon landings by 2028.

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale views an operational Starship as critical for SpaceX’s investment thesis, with improved engine performance and successful landing sequences being key indicators of progress.

Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann suggests a strong showing today could pave the way for Starship’s first orbital attempt soon, marking a significant step for future human spaceflight capabilities.

What to Watch Next

Keep an eye on post-launch data for engine performance, especially the Super Heavy booster’s 33 Raptor engines and the Starship’s critical engine relight in space.

Watch for successful deployment of the 20 Starlink satellites and their laser communication attempts, which signals progress for the network’s next generation and global coverage.

Future flights will be critical for SpaceX’s $4 billion NASA contracts, which require at least a dozen consecutive successful launches and proven human transport capabilities for moon missions as early as 2028.